One of the rules of the stock market which I believe that fund manager Hugh Hendry came up with is that it is worse to be too early to the party than too late. This alleged quotation is to my mind brilliant for two reasons. First, is that there is generally a mania amongst investors in trying to pick the low. The second, which may be far more important, is that one can very often learn from the mistakes of those who have got on a bandwagon too early. Perhaps it also may be useful to note that as at parties themselves, the atmosphere tends to be more relaxed towards the end of the evening, as it can be once a trend has matured.
Vinanz / Sureserve
All of this rather comes to mind in the wake of the arrival on Friday of crypto miner Vinanz (AQSE:BTC). The timing could be perfect. We have already come off the back of FTX, a painful decline in the value of the crypto space, and regulators on the warpath, even as fiat organisations like Credit Suisse, have failed in plain sight. The main positive argument for Vinanz is that we are in the aftermath of the Dotcom bubble bursting in crypto, and the big rally could be on its way. The secondary positive argument for Vinanz, and any other companies brave enough to come it market, is that we need the newbies. Indeed, for every Sureserve (SUR) which is taken over, ideally we need five new minnows to replace them. Given the cost, the red tape, the risks, and the enjoyment that some people see in companies failing, usually to compensate for their own failures, it is understandable that in 2023, a stock market IPO is not exactly the hottest ticket in town.
However, there are companies that fly under the radar and simply get on with the job. Interestingly enough, a company which I had not heard of before, whom I interviewed during the week was Billington (BILN). This was literally a company of which I knew nothing, but in less than 10 minutes questioning the CEO and CFO, I was very impressed, something which does not happen often. If only one could come across such solid plays on a more regular basis, something I am saying given the way that the company has been mentioned positively in the Mail On Sunday. Ironically, this must be one of the few times I agree with the paper.
Amigo / UK Oil & Gas
Finally, this week was the week when Amigo (AMGO) was presumably forced to put out a speeding ticket RNS, saying that it is still winding down, and knows of no reason why the share price is rising. Of course, it cannot say that as the winding down date comes ever closer, those who are short of the stock will be buying back to cover their positions. But at least it does remind us that it could be a sign of a more general turnaround for the stock market, if bear blighted stocks start rallying sharply. For instance, this week there was a sharp turnaround for UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), one that for a change looks like it will have legs.
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