Russia / Ukraine Continued
It is traditionally the case that being an armchair general is actually easier than the real thing. Unfortunately these days with things so fast moving and snippets of information being delivered all the time via live feeds, even what was formally a pedestrian way of solving military conflict can be deceptively arduous.
The latest twist in the Russia / Ukraine conflict is that President Macron of France has put his foot down and suggested that they should be no peace talks while bombs are falling. While this may be a half decent idea, or at least an ideal, given his country’s rather mixed record on military conflict, it may be better for him to look at the attitude of the main protagonists rather than channelling his inner Napoleon.
What appears to be the case is that President Putin would like to hold peace talks in Istanbul with fellow dictator Erdogan holding court. It would appear that jaw jaw goes along with war war at the moment.
That said, the crack team of military advisors here at Zaktraderscafe.com still believe that the best lasting solution would be to allow Russia to keep the land annexed in the past three years plus Crimea, in return for the remaining part of Ukraine to be brought into NATO.
Only then would there be any realistic prospect of President Putin not deciding to start another conflict every time he thinks that his position is President may be threatened. Of course, we have been here before in terms of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel of the three year conflict. But at least this time we have President Zelensky himself suggesting that the peace talks offer from the Kremlin is positive.
India/Pakistan Round 4
Just when you thought that the world was on edge geopolitically with just Russia Ukraine, it would appear that India / Pakistan are somewhat jealous and wished to join the death party, for the purpose of keeping us even more on edge at the prospect of a war between two . The irony though, is that this fourth major conflict since the two countries gained their independence does not seem to have learnt any of the lessons of the previous three. There are some signs though, that Pakistan is a somewhat stronger foes to India, taking into account the massive partisan commentary on both side. Even though it only has around a fifth of the population, as we have seen in Russia Ukraine, military technology has improved to make even David and Goliath Adversaries rather more equal than previously. Nevertheless, one is still thinking about what would’ve happened if the power in India in 1947 if it had decided just to stay as one country rather than divide into two. A greater India would have been one of the world’s greatest superpowers And presumably life for those in non-economically booming Pakistan or dystopian nightmare Kashmir would have been better. However, even well into the 21st century it can be seen that part of the fabric that keeps both countries together is sectarianism, nationalism, as well as military force. Although this is a standard state of affairs in Third World / developing countries, it is not obligatory, and of course is one of the reasons why so many citizens from the former British colonies decide somewhat counterintuitively to go back to the land of their colonial Masters. The irony of this is that the tend to end up living with the very people they were trying to get away from in the first place, or who do not even live as a majority in the native country.
Simon Mann 1952-2025
Presumably not many of us have mercenaries or coup plotters in their WhatsApp contacts. Indeed, not many of us either have former members of the SAS, Sandhurst trained soldiers, or adventures just a tap away on their mobile phone.However, in the case of Simon Mann, the recently deceased non-executive Chairman of Hydrogen Utopia, after a series of interviews and meetings he did become a bona fide contact. While this was limited not surprisingly to his role role at the waste plastic to hydrogen group, I knew him well enough to know that the man in reality was far different from his portrayal in the media. Indeed, while one imagines most military types to be rough, tough, arrogant and brusque, Mann was in my experience more no more threatening than your local Vicar at the village fete. Indeed, his sudden demise last week leaves one feeling as one does of many of the key characters that one has known, that if one had made one last phone call, had one last meeting, something which rather kin to the effect of a butterfly’s wing would meant his fate would have changed and that he would still be with us. He was determined to push the Hydrogen Utopia story along. Even if it meant metaphorically bashing heads together it is clear that there is a massive pro plastics lobby, and given his CV Mann given more time might just have been the person to win a victory against this lobby and “, save the world.” One of the most memorable times we met was on the 80th anniversary of D Day last year. He said that three of his uncles were all at Normandy that day, and all three survived. I asked whether this was the result of luck or skill. He said that in a hail of bullets and bombs, there is absolutely no skill I involved, something which made survival all the more incredible.
“Brexity”
The phrase tough on parking tickets soft on axe murderers, has always been a warning against disproportionate legal force being used on the unsuspecting public. This phrase originated well before accusations of two-tier policing which this government has apparently made its own. The defence of such an approach to the application of the law is presumably to ensure that it levels the playing field of justice. For instance, in the 20th century it was people of colour, or those disadvantaged in society who tended to be at the short end of the stick as the long arm of the law, whereas increasingly in the 21st century it will appear that things have changed. It might be the case that the intention behind all of this is to ensure balance and fairness. In the case of Julian Foulkes, 71, a retard police officer, being handcuffed by six officers from Kent police (for whom he previously worked) for alleged social media posts, maybe regarded as overkill. Putting the alleged comments on social aside, the fact that there were six offices available for this exercise is somewhat at odds with the amount of Bobbies one sees on the beat, especially late at night and around transport hubs. It also implies that they were trying to arrest someone with the strength of Oleksandr Usyk, and who happened to be in a very bad mood.
But at least the incident has given us a new word for the Oxford English dictionary: “Brexity.” In something which appears to be taken straight out of the film Fahrenheit 451, the pensioner was revealed to have “Brexity” books at his home. This apparently referring to works including those of Spectator writer Douglas Murray. Perhaps Brexity really means, “Britishy” or even worse, “Englshy”. If this is the way things are going forward, perhaps local councils will arrange skips at the end of the road to allow us to dispose of publications that may incriminate us. Presumably, at least for the time being we are safe in keeping “Remainery” tomes on our shelves. I am of course claiming to be the originator of “Remainery”, “Britishy” and “Englishy”in the next edition of the OED.
UK/US Trade Deal
What happens when two leaders who have reinvented the art of the deal get together? We found this out during the week when the result of the long flagged UK/US trade deal was revealed. As far as Trump is concerned, obviously he is the man who brought us the “art of the deal”and other such legendary negotiating tactics. These may have worked when he was a businessman. But in the wake of the tariff wars that he has created, raising the percentages sometimes by the day, his way of doing things is apparently a reinvention of the genre.
For instance, he appears to be like someone at a street market originally selling a bag of oranges for £5, then when no one bites raising it to £15, and then claiming victory when they are sold at all. In contrast, Starmer seems to be somebody who will actually pay people £15 to buy the oranges, and then promise to pay them £15 for the next one hundred years.
This was his tactic with the Chagos Islands, a deal that no one apart from those in his entourage wanted to “sell” in the first place.
As far as the result of the UK/US trade deal is concerned what we seem to have had is our tariffs cut on UK cars to 10% and on steel and aluminium down to 0%. This may all be fine and dandy. But one would ask whether there should there never have been any tariffs on any of this in the first place. At the same time there are apparently no concessions on digital services tax or online safety, not that most care about such matters. All of this suggests that we have had the threat of massive tariffs across the board, which then is painted as a victory when not all of them are carried out. In a global world of trade it is only free trade which really matters and the more barriers there are the worse it is for all concerned. Of course, the problem with free trade is if you are no good at it, and as Mr Trump is soon to find out, attempting to tilt the table in your favour with tariffs does not work. This is especially when others keep theirs on you, and will never remove them. As was stated in the Financial Times this weekend, the deal is not worth the paper it is not written on.
AI Popes And Presidents
Ahead of artificial intelligence taking away our jobs and controlling our lives, we have the first step in the process whereby AI is used to deliver humour and satire. A few days before the new Pope being elected on May 8 there was an AI representation of the US President dressed as the Pontiff straight from the White House social media feed. This was partly a nod to Trump suggesting that he would not mind being head honcho at the Vatican. And since then there has been an AI representation of Pope Leo XIV as US President. What was interesting about the former, temporary emergence of Pope Donald I is the way in some mysteriously divine way it did almost seem to lead to the first American Pope. Indeed, with the arrival of Pope Leo, and the swing in politics against MAGA in both Canada and Australia, one could argue that Pope Leo’s arrival was an equally influenced event caused by having such a controversial and divisive incumbent at the White House.
