Russia – Ukraine: A Gordian Knot Solution?
Perhaps not surprisingly, in an area of overregulation, a nanny state, and generally making things more difficult than they should be, this week’s announcement of a potential Gordian Knot solution to Russia-Ukraine rather disappointed those with a vested interest in its continuation. While it is difficult to get an exact handle on whether the conflict should continue or not, or indeed how well Ukraine is doing, it would appear that in a five-set game of tennis, Ukraine is perhaps two sets down. Whether it could eventually prevail and reclaim its territory, or whether Russia could ultimately take over the whole of Ukraine, perhaps the best outcome is the intermediate situation where both sides call it quits.
Fresh from his proposal of a “Gaza Riviera,” it is likely that whatever solution is put forward will be “creative” and will probably upset many concerned. However, the person who may not be upset is clearly President Putin, who appears to be receiving a win. Perhaps the key now is whether whatever deal is struck ensures that, for his lifetime, there is no further conflict or expansion.
All the while, we are left wondering how the current situation might never have happened if President Clinton hadn’t moved to expand NATO in the 1990s. And, of course, there was the other blunder from Boris Johnson, who allegedly advised Zelensky not to entertain a compromise peace agreement with Russia. Presumably Boris liked the idea of being a war time leader like his hero, Winston Churchill?
Chagos
No doubt there will be plenty of horse-trading over the next few weeks between the US and Russia regarding what is palatable in Ukraine in terms of sovereignty in the region. In the meantime, the new Labour government has been moving full steam ahead in giving away what little remains of the UK’s overseas territories. Unlike conventional asset sales, where the vendor usually gains some advantage, the Chagos situation appears to have been engineered to be as financially painful to the UK as possible. It was orchestrated by a former Mauritian prime minister who has been questioned over money laundering. That said, given the alleged £90 million a year in payments from the UK to his country, it could be argued that Mr. Jugnauth is well-equipped to handle and process large sums. If only returning what remains of the British Empire to its rightful owners and paying them to do so had been in the Labour manifesto.
It would also be helpful in such future negotiations (Gibraltar / Falklands) if the government reminded those it is dealing with that the UK is approximately £2.7 trillion in debt and, therefore, effectively skint.
Of course, in controversial situations, allegations of corruption and sleaze often arise, which, in the case of the Chagos affair, could actually scupper a deal.
Reeves Expenses
However, it is very unlikely that the latest expenses allegations against Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be enough to cost her the second most important job in politics. This is partly because the issue refers to a time before she became an MP and partly because she has a great deal of unpopular work to do before Keir Starmer would consider removing her.
Given that the UK is losing a millionaire every 45 minutes, there simply isn’t enough tax revenue to go around, and we can expect another round of economically damaging proposals. This is especially true given that, against all odds, the economy has not yet fallen into recession. On this basis, there will be a few more pips to squeeze in the spring. Indeed, it would be wise for Reeves to move quickly with this final tightening of the noose because, if the economy is not already in recession due to the autumn budget, it is likely to be in that state by the spring—or very soon after. By that time, things could really start to spiral out of control.
