Overnight the headline waiting as one opened one’s phone was that “Trump Shot.” By the sound of it so far, this headline could have been “Trump Assassinated.” Perhaps the most interesting part of the reaction so far has been President Biden’s: “Political violence, in America like this is just unheard of.” He has perhaps forgotten, JFK, RFK, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, Ronald Reagan (injured) et al. But then again, although not senile (according to Prime Minister Starmer), he is not quite at his peak.
Speaking of the older generation, this week I met my father’s former stockbroker for the first time in 17 years. I have known him since 1976 (when I was 10), and he has been an inspiration ever since. Obviously, I wanted to be a stockbroker once I knew him. But more importantly, he was the inspiration for getting me into small caps since the mid 1980s. Indeed, unlike all most of the so-called experts in the microcap area, my father’s stockbroker, who I shall not name, actually identified companies, met them, did the research and rode the shares to the top. He, along with his colleague, set up a fund which from the early 1990s has been a byword for stock market success. Interestingly enough, now, nearly 50 years after becoming aware of someone who is to his area what Paul McCartney is to music, he has still got it.
Indeed, as it has turned out, my now “Paul McCartney” identified one of the biggest small cap risers of the past week. It reminds me that when I got into the stock market I was too lazy to do all the research, I was just looking at the share price, and where it might go. A conclusion in the aftermath of this week’s meeting with my hero, is that the person who can combine both understanding of the company and the price action would / could be king.
And what a couple of months it has been in the small cap area – in a good way. I am guessing that with the horror of the new government, and its crackpot ideas, the few people with money who have not left the country may have decided that taking a punt on the stock market is the way to go. Presumably, given the lay of the land, they would be doing this via a spreadbet, rather than buying the shares and being a stamp duty / CGT clay pigeon. On this basis there could be a revival in speculative shares, in the way that during the pandemic people (to alleviate the boredom) punted stocks.
In fact, over the past month some of the best risers have been Helium One (HE1), Graft Polymer (GPL), CAP-XX (CPX), Mosman (MSMN), Kendrick (KEN), Longboat (LBE), Simec Atlantic (SAE), Avacta (AVCT), Optibiotix (OPTI), Northcoders (CODE), Eurasia (EUA), Helix Exploration (HEX), Guardian Metal (GMET) and MetalNRG (MNRG). There have of course been more. But all of the above have been called up in the Bulletin Board Heroes daily charting video, the culmination of 35 years of market watching, and my flagship offering. To add a little spice, I have included the stock that “Paul McCartney” picked – which we both coincided on. Perhaps companies, rather than seeking alleged PR that no one cares about, might just hope they get a mention in the Bulletin Board Heroes? It is what I would do, but of course, I am somewhat conflicted.
At the end of the day it is still my view that while investors obviously want to know whether a company is up to scratch fundamentally, once that has been established. it is where the share price might go which is key. That is where the technicals come in, and after completing not 10,000 hours – as in Malcolm Gladwell’s idea, but 100,000 hours, one starts to garner some wisdom and instinct in this most difficult of areas.
Speaking of Helix (HEX), what a success this has been, and what a boost for the stock market. At 28p the shares have nearly tripled from their IPO price, rather more quickly even than explorer Guardian Metal (GMET) even. One looks forward to how much more momentum HEX can gather in the run up to as it finesses its two wells and in the wake of last month’s farm-in agreement.
Last week I mentioned that URAH Holdings (URAH) appeared to have been treated rather unfairly by the market, given that it has gone into emerald production on time and on budget. The guess as to why the shares were down was that after recent good news some felt the company was due a cash call. But this has not been the case, with the company already having cashed up ahead of production getting underway a couple of months ago. The 40% rise last week is a fair re-rate. However, one would think that the stock should be on the right side of 2p versus 1.75p currently.
One of the negative surprises of the week in the small cap area -and where the market may have been wrong in the way it was wrong with regard to URAH, was the stonking RNS from Hydrogen Utopia (HUI). Here HUI’s Ohrid Organics doing a deal with world leader in cannabis Canopy Growth should have doubled the share price. Instead, nothing happened. Returning to the Paul McCartney analogy, this is a bit like him playing / writing a song for your new album. But one supposes that once England win the Euros and people are focused again, the value will out.
Of course, the epic saga of what is wrong with the UK stock market, and what can be done about it continues. This week on Linkedin I saw a post by Chris Mayo, Head of Primary Markets, Americas, LSEG. It reminded us that in only quarter of people in the UK versus two thirds in the USA own shares. The main issue here is perhaps the Englishman’s home being their castle. Why take the risk of the stock market when bricks and mortar are a dead cert? But for me, this is not so much the issue as the type of people involved in the market: the journeymen, the charlatans who pretend to be millionaire investors and then join a scuzzy platform, and all the weasels attempting to make money from investors and companies, while having no interest or knowledge of the market.
It was interesting that the Economist this week wrote about the potential takeover of Hargreaves Lansdown, the deliciously overpriced stockbroker which has been doing so since 1981. Presumably, once H-L takes the private equity cash, the service will be even more expensive. Of course, like the Financial Times, The Economist is an anti-capitalist publication (due to the lack of capitalist journalists), writing about the capital markets. I noted that the FT actually backed Labour in the General Election, whilst stating its unbiased credentials.
Finally, this week I noticed that one of the better performers on Aquis this year is Ananda Developments (AQSE:ANA). I have been really impressed by the cardiac fibrosis news at the company, if only on the basis that it may save my life. Ahead of that (I hope) on Wednesday July 17th there is The Pub Test” Investor Evening featuring Ananda. This event is co-hosted by our friends at Aquis Exchange and our new friends at InvestorHub and will take place at Samuel Pepys, Stew Ln, London EC4V 3PT, starting at 6:00 PM. “The Company’s CEO, Melissa Sturgess, will engage in a fireside conversation designed especially for private investors. This setting offers a unique opportunity for attendees to interact directly with company executives, ask questions, and network with fellow investors.”
I have registered to attend, even though I did not receive an invite directly, but a friend forwarded his invite, so phew! Happy to sign autographs etc.
https://events.humanitix.com/the-pub-test-or-london-july-4-2024
Author
