Black Box Thinking
A few years ago I read a book by journalist Matthew Syed, called Black Box Thinking. As the title suggests part of the book included learning from air accidents, failures, and injustices. Not surprisingly, many of us do not want to learn from failures / disasters, as it lowers our self-esteem, and the same applies to organisations. Clearly, in the wake of the shocking Washington crash, and with the hint that Lucy Letby may not always have been around when the all the hospital tragedies occurred, the past week gives us more to learn from. While everyone, including President Trump now appears to be an aviation expert, it may be the case that once investigated thoroughly, the idea of having a helicopter flight path overlapping and underneath an airport flight path may not be one that is continued going forward.
Tariffs
Speaking of President Trump, one of the main pillars of his new administration was to charge trade tariffs on imports from the likes of China, Mexico, Canada and the EU. This process was started this weekend. But perhaps what Mr Trump had not factored was the possibility that whatever tariff he applied, would be met by the same one on the other side. This kind of gets things back to square one, and it is difficult to see how it will end well. Or perhaps that was the point of the exercise?
5 Years Since Brexit
This week marked 5 years since the UK officially left the EU, and interesting statistic in its own right, given that we voted to leave 4 years before leaving. No one has really questioned why it took so long to actually leave, given that in the meantime nothing material was done in order to smooth the journey once we had officially said goodbye. Indeed, it was quite the opposite. 4 years of more free movement, red tape, and all the other things that the Brexiteers voted against. But in the 5 years since, none of the advantages of leaving are apparent. It is clear that the Establishment punishment beating of the decision to leave and those who voted for it continues. What is will be interesting if Reform ever gets into power (unlikely given the ongoing gerrymandering of the demographics), is whether it will be able to get its way over The Blob, which has made it so painful for us outside the EU, that so many would now beg to be allowed back in.
DeepSeek
Having been aware of the stock market on a day in / day out basis, there are some rules that tend to work. For instance, whenever a market call from one of the big investment banks is revealed, e.g. Goldman Sachs, or Deutsche Bank saying sell the Nasdaq, buy Gold, 9 times out of 10, it is time to go the other way. For instance, on January 10 Deutsche Bank said investors should sell the pound on a broad trade-weighted basis, as Britain’s current account deficit is no longer improving, and the currency is vulnerable to the recent increase in volatility. The low was on January 13 (the following Monday). It was the time to buy. It is the same story with stories from non Western markets, such as crashes in the Nikkei, or in the case of AI copier DeepSeek, the tech sell off in US stocks at the beginning of the week. While our tech bros in Silicon Valley may have been spooked, we all know who are the real innovators in the space, and who will always be one step ahead of the “competition”.
Alcohol Price Rise
Just to illustrate how cruel and psychotic our new cash strapped government is, Saturday February 1 was the day that drinkers faced a RPI rise in prices, based on the woke measure of the strength of the alcohol. It was a particularly cruel measure as many really boring / square people will have just ended their Dry January. Ironically, the move comes at a time when it has been revealed that an increasing number of Gen Z people are quitting drinking, presumably due to being not only boring and square, but being too poor or mean to do so. While one might welcome the move to tax alcohol in terms of boosting the government’s coffers, or because of health reasons, it is perhaps pubs / hospitality where the sympathy should really lie, given the precarious state many such businesses are already in.
