USA / Iran
Well those who may have lately bought shares in bitcoin treasury strategy companies are most likely to be partying like it’s 1999, the rest of us have the pleasure/honour of watching a political game of chicken unfold.
In terms of conflict/war it is not so much 2025 that we seem to be in. but 1975. In fact the latest bombing of alleged Iranian nuclear enrichment sites, continues the recent tradition delivered by Russia / Ukraine, Israel / Palestine, and Israel/Iran. But unlike 1975 where there tended to be plenty of troops on the ground, the latest version of war in the 21st century seems to be one that involves drones and aerial/remote attacks.
This may be all well and good for a couple of reasons the first is that the US/allies clearly have the best technology in all respects, as they are largely the ones that develop the latest models. Of course, the old models are sold to the enemies, something that the latter do not seem to be aware of. This of course means that in a situation such as where the bunker busting bombs is concerned, Iran does not have much in the way of capability in order to alleviate such an attack.
The second point is that for the most part the only protagonists taking part and conflict these days are those who require it in order to survive. This is a point that can be considered at leisure. But it is the case that as far as nations in debt, nations built on religion, and perhaps nations that simply do not work, conflict is a very good way of kicking the can down the road.
At the same time conflict continues to be a way of old men shooting for immortality at the expense of the rest of us. The hope would be that after the current generation of incumbents meets their maker, ideally before the rest of us, a new generation of leaders who are somewhat more responsible will be allowed to step up to the plate.
Although this is unlikely, politics tends to attract a certain type of narcissistic sociopath, there is the hope that Millennials/ Generation Z will be more concerned about having proper broadband than expanding their borders. Of course, we have to get out of the current situation that we are in, one that is unfolding rapidly. It was long expected that if Iran was hit hard, it would in revenge vote to close the Straight of Hormuz, the world’s most important seaway as far as transporting oil. They have indeed voted to do this, a point which they may feel is a show of strength if they go through with it. Unfortunately, it is a kin to turkeys voting for Christmas, as the Iranians clearly need their petrodollars, especially after the latest attack. At least for the near term, via Hormuz, the Iranians have unleashed what they think is their “Trump” card.
The Decline Of Great Britain
For most of the lifetimes of most of the people alive in Great Britain at the moment, the subject which has nearly pipped the weather as the major talking point has been the decline of this country. And as The Telegraph reported this week, there were plenty of new stories to underline how badly things have gone pear shaped in the recent past. The question is whether this is something which is occurred due to incompetence or something which has been deliberate? The idea of the establishment, in the form of the civil service, the judiciary and politicians all deliberately ripping off the country and using it as their own gravy train is obviously in an attractive one. This is especially if you look at the state of the NHS, creaking infrastructure and the destruction of communities. Did it fall, or was it pushed remains the big issue in this country?
In fact it is more comforting to think of incompetence, neglect, and general foolishness as being the reason for the perceived decline of this country, rather than judging the process as being a skilfully managed and brilliantly executed one. The small boats continue to arrive, HS2 has been delayed, and protesters have caused millions of pounds of damage at an RAF base.
It would perhaps be more comforting to think of this as something that is not actually a problem. For instance, did we ever need HS2. Apparently we need mass migration to boost the economy and apart from the odd fly past the RAF probably would not have much capability in a real war, let alone coming to grips with protesters.
Therefore, rather than decline it may just be the times have changed and there are different things which make this country great. Indeed, this time of the year reminds us that many of the greatest traditions that we have are still very much in business such as Glastonbury, literally very much in business, Royal Ascot, Wimbledon and Test Match cricket. All of these make fast amounts of cash not only for the people involved but also for the Exchequer. Indeed, complaining about the UK may be akin to complaining about climate change, in the sense that a different climate creates different opportunities.
Of course the irony of it all is that nine years after the Brexit vote, leaving the European Union leaves us with no one else to blame apart from obviously the people who voted to leave the European Union. But as the tide has gone out on that historic vote, we can see who blocked any positive consequences of that move, and who lied about the potential advantages. The idea of going into Europe, at least for those who remember 1975, and the end to the do EC, was that it would potentially end rip off Britain, and the vested interests that have held it back.
Indeed, the fiasco such as the £37 billion lost in “test and trace” would have been the kind of event that should not have happened if we were still in the EU. That said, the problem of people entering politics for their own self-serving purposes, getting on the gravy train of public expenditure, and undermining those less mediocre themselves is a problem which is difficult to crack. Ironically, while it would be easy to believe that Great Britain is in managed decline, we cannot seemingly get figures that are reliable enough to work out whether we are actually in decline or not.
